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[Cotton does not have rising co]
Release date:[2018/12/3] Is reading[109]次

The end of 2018 is about to end. For cotton, this year's trend can be described as ups and downs. In the two years after the shock consolidation, cotton in May this year, with the east wind of Xinjiang weather worry, the price soared to 19,000 yuan / ton. However, there was no problem with the late supply of the market, and domestic production did not fall as expected. At the same time, with the continuous fermentation of trade disputes, although the impact of cotton itself is not large, but the overall market sentiment is greatly affected, the overall mood is pessimistic. The overall lack of bad air coupled with poor industry prospects made the cotton market weak overall. This led to a slow decline in the market from June to the present. After experiencing a short “roller coaster” market, the cotton futures price returned to the platform of 15,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

After the large-scale listing of new cotton in October, domestic cotton prices have hit record lows, and the cold wind in the cotton market is still violently scraping. In the market, Zheng cotton also ushered in seven consecutive yin from last week to this week. However, the Xiaoyang line of the last three trading days seems to have stabilized. Today, Zheng Cotton's main 1905 contract showed a wave of decline in the morning, and it oscillated upwards in the afternoon. It closed at 15,105 yuan/ton, down 0.2%, with a turnover of 102,000 contracts and a holding of 290,000 contracts.

Judging from the current domestic supply and demand situation, Zhang Xiufeng, a senior researcher at Cinda Futures Agricultural Products, analyzed that cotton production in 18/19 was relatively stable, with an estimated 5.27 million tons, and the import volume increased slightly, reaching 1.5 million tons. At the same time, the total consumption is 8.7 million tons, and the inventory is expected to fall from 6.16 million tons at the beginning of the period to 4.25 million tons. The inventory consumption is about 48%, which is close to the 09/10 level. From the data point of view, the destocking of cotton in the past few years has been effective, and the low inventory has provided the necessary support for the cotton market. "But we believe that in the short term, only by low stocks, cotton does not have the conditions for rising. In the context of Sino-US trade friction, the slow increase in demand is the core factor. In 2019, cotton may still be weak, but with As the inventory declines, the bottom will become more and more solid."

In addition, when Zheng cotton continued to fall, there was also a situation in which the external market did not keep up with the decline. USDA's previously announced export sales report shows that as of the week of November 15, US 2018/19 cotton exports net sales of 210,500 bales; 2019/20 cotton export net sales of 31,700 bales, the market is more worried about US cotton or continue to drag Zheng cotton Downstream. However, Zhang Xiufeng said that although the current export data of US cotton is not good, it shows that there is a certain problem in demand. There may be Chinese factors in it, and theoretically it will drag down Zheng cotton. However, under actual circumstances, the internal and external discs of cotton are relatively ecologically independent. As the import and export control of cotton is relatively high, the recent domestic market trend is less stable than that of US cotton, and it is more stable.

“In the short term, the market is most concerned about whether the outcome of the G20 summit meeting between Chinese and American leaders will bring good news to the entire capital market. Although the fundamentals of cotton may be more limited, market barriers will open up to the entire commodity. The market injects vitality." Zhang Xiufeng said.

In the medium and long term, he believes that cotton may enter a bottoming period, and the inventory will continue to decline. If there is a peak demand, it may bring a wave of rising prices to cotton. The core factors of future concern are first of all the progress of Sino-US trade friction, followed by the decline of cotton stocks, and finally whether the market terminals can have large demand.

 

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